Summary
Clarification of the nature of the observed changes in the Arctic Ocean is
of central importance for development of capability to predict the future
evolution of the Arctic system. Internally, more or less cyclical behavior
of the system would have different effects compared to secular change with
respect to:
- water mass characteristics and their impact on stratification,
diapycnal heat fluxes, and transport of heat and salt,
- freshwater inventories (including that stored in form of sea ice),
- freshwater release to the North Atlantic,
- the heat budget of the upper water
layers and its interplay with the sea ice cover,
- sea ice circulation and
thickness distribution, and
- future circulation patterns.
Externally,
the nature of the change within the Arctic Ocean has implications for the
preconditioning of the stratification in the water formation regions of
NADW (constant addition of freshwater compared to freshwater addition that
varies around an average value consistent with today’s conditions).
To address these and related questions we propose to design, where necessary
develop, and implement a component of an Arctic Ocean Observing System in
the Switchyard region of the Arctic Ocean (north of Greenland and Nares Strait)
that will serve the scientific studies developed for the IPY (International
Polar Year), SEARCH (Study of Environmental ARctic Change), and related
programs. The defining elements of the System are: (1) a multi-platform
design, (2) combination of proven technology with adaptation of innovative,
highly promising, new tools for operation under sea ice cover that are
considered to be future backbones of a quasi-permanent, pan-Arctic Ocean
System, (3) a modular approach that allows expansion of the system to a
pan-Arctic scale, and (4) ongoing refinement of the design through evaluation
of combined data and modeling results. The project will leave a significant
legacy through its contribution to a long-term pan-Arctic Ocean
Observing System that will yield results on Arctic change well beyond the
intensive IPY period.